Market Update: Golden Week & October Outlook

Asia to U.S. ocean freight | September 22, 2026

Space out of Asia is effectively sold out for the rest of September. China's Golden Week holiday, heavy blank sailings and severe port congestion in Shanghai and Ningbo are all hitting at once, and rates have moved sharply higher.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU

- Book now. September space is full; most available sailings have moved to mid-October.

- Expect rolled bookings, especially out of Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao and Xingang. Build one to two weeks of cushion into delivery dates.

- Rates may stay firm through the first half of October, with another potential increase on October 15, unless demand weakens.

WHY SPACE IS SO TIGHT

The pre-holiday rush. China's National Day holiday runs October 1–7 and typically shuts down production for one to two weeks. Shippers are pushing cargo out before it starts, which has sold out space from Shanghai, Ningbo, Shenzhen and Vietnam, especially to the West Coast. East Coast space is available but limited.

Blank sailings. Carriers are cancelling sailings to match the holiday dip in demand. Over Weeks 40–41:

- Pacific Southwest (LA/Long Beach): 14 blank sailings, about 30% of capacity

- U.S. East Coast: 9 blank sailings, about 23.5% of capacity

- Pacific Northwest: 5 blank sailings, about 15% of capacity

- U.S. Gulf: 3 blank sailings, about 5% of capacity

Typhoon-driven port congestion. A strong run of typhoons in August left Shanghai, Ningbo and Yantian badly backed up. Vessels are waiting an average of 14 days to berth in Shanghai, and some services are skipping the port entirely for several weeks. Port authorities have tightened cut-offs, rollover limits and gate windows, so carriers have little room to add extra space. Conditions should improve after the holiday, but Shanghai is not expected to fully recover until the end of November.

CHINA ORIGIN SPACE, WEEKS 40–45

- Shanghai: Tight to all U.S. coasts

- Ningbo: Tight to West Coast and East Coast; Gulf normal

- Yantian / Shenzhen: Tight to LA/Long Beach; all others normal

- Qingdao: Tight to all U.S. coasts

- Xingang (Tianjin): Full to all U.S. coasts

- Nanjing: Tight to all U.S. coasts

- Wuhan / Chongqing: Tight to Pacific NW, East Coast and Gulf; LA/Long Beach normal

- Xiamen: Tight to East Coast and Gulf; West Coast normal

- Fuzhou / Dalian: Normal

- Taiwan: Normal; Gulf tight

Rolled bookings are occurring on most carriers even where space shows normal. In Shanghai, only Matson and premium expedited services are avoiding rolls.

SOUTHEAST ASIA, KOREA AND INDIA

- Vietnam: Tight on most major carriers. Expected to ease late October.

- Malaysia: September effectively full. Expected to ease mid-October.

- Indonesia: Full in Week 40, tight in Week 41. Expected to ease mid-October.

- Cambodia: Tight, with feeders out of Phnom Penh running about 5 days late. Expected to ease early October.

- Philippines: Tight in Week 40 only.

- Thailand: Mostly normal.

- Korea: Mostly normal; a few carriers full to the West Coast.

- India: West Coast tight, especially on transshipment legs; East Coast has improved. Expected to ease mid-October.

EQUIPMENT

Containers are tightest in Shanghai (all sizes) and at inland Chinese points such as Chongqing, Nanjing and Wuhan, with shortages on select carriers in Ningbo. 40' equipment is tight on several carriers in Vietnam and Indonesia, and India's inland depots are short. Most other origins are normal; 45' and special equipment need to be checked case by case.

OCTOBER HOLIDAYS AT ORIGIN

- China: October 1–7 (National Day)

- Hong Kong: October 1, October 19

- Taiwan: October 9–11, October 24–26

- Korea: October 5, October 9

- India: October 2, October 21

- Thailand: October 13, October 23

- Cambodia: October 10–12, October 15, October 29

- No October public holidays in Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines or Singapore.

OUR RECOMMENDATION

- Have suppliers book at least two to three weeks ahead of cargo-ready dates.

- For Shanghai cargo, ask us about alternate gateways and expedited services.

- Plan for a post-holiday backlog that could keep schedules unreliable into November.

Questions are welcome anytime. Reach out to your Chain Logic contact to secure space or review options for upcoming shipments.