Rates reach a 12-month high as early peak season tightens space
Mid-June 2026 · Asia to U.S. ocean freight
Dear Readers,
An early peak season is underway. U.S. importers are front-loading ahead of rising fuel surcharges, supplier price increases, and tariff uncertainty — and the result is the tightest space and highest spot rates we've seen in a year. Booking volumes out of China and Southeast Asia jumped roughly 10–11% in mid-May, and most sailings are now fully booked through the end of June into July. Carriers pushed a significant rate increase, in excess of well over $1,000/40' through on June 1 and have announced a second round of the same or similar size for June 15.
Forecasted minimum spot rates — Far East to U.S. (effective June 15), per 40':
West Coast (USWC): $6,300++ — 12-month high
East Coast (USEC): $7,500++ — 12-month high
Gulf Coast: $7,600++ — subject to WFG
Chicago & inland (IPI): $8,300–8,500++
The East Coast & Gulf squeeze West Coast pressure should ease slightly — six extra loaders are arriving at L.A./Long Beach and MSC is reinstating its Pearl service from South China on June 13, making a full June 15 increase less likely to stick on the West Coast. East Coast and Gulf are different: space is essentially sold out through month-end, and Miami and Houston capacity is being cut by about 37% from Week 25 blank sailings. For urgent Gulf cargo, routing via Los Angeles is possible but carries materially higher cost.
Weight restrictions & surcharges
MSC / ZIM (Lone Star & ZSL) to Gulf: 8–10 tons/TEU incl. tare
General USEC/Gulf services: ~10 tons/TEU
Maersk Heavy Load Surcharge (Asia → ECNA, from July 1): +$400/container
Panama Canal draft limits and very full vessels are driving the caps. From July 3, the canal reduces max draft on its Neopanamax locks from 50 ft to 49.5 ft to conserve water — the first such restriction this year.
Vietnam origin space outlook (HCM & Haiphong):
WK25 (Jun 14–20): Tight / Full, both coasts
WK26 (Jun 21–27): Tight
WK27 (Jun 28–Jul 4): Tight
WK28 (Jul 5–11): Tight
WK29 onward (Jul 12+): Normal
Cambodia is similarly full to tight through Weeks 25–26 with ~5-day feeder delays out of Phnom Penh. India is constrained by heavy blank sailings — ONE has only one East Coast sailing scheduled for all of June.
Air freight — quick read Transpacific air is firming. Hong Kong rates rose 10–15% week-over-week to about $9.00/kg (USWC) and $9.20/kg (USEC); Southeast Asia is higher at roughly $9.20/kg (USWC) and $9.50/kg (USEC).
Our recommendation: book early and book ahead. With space sold out on most East Coast and Gulf services through June, place bookings through your suppliers as early as possible — and at minimum two weeks before your cargo's ship date. Watch container weights on East Coast and Gulf moves, and talk to us early about alternative routings for urgent or heavy shipments.
— The Chain Logic Team
